Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 8.741098 10.303470 12.022734 14.049331 16.366873 18.928250 21.967023
2025-01-19 6.385275 8.396436 10.818981 13.928696 17.788785 22.395238 28.277838
2025-01-26 5.270428 7.580261 10.573436 14.683263 20.118335 26.991714 36.262108
2025-02-02 4.449579 6.918384 10.324776 15.275230 22.174515 31.321755 44.211973
2025-02-09 3.873660 6.453887 10.215502 15.956828 24.323181 35.863808 52.728440
2025-02-16 3.250883 5.790666 9.693691 15.932842 25.409917 38.967761 59.446149
2025-02-23 2.657269 5.056831 8.939695 15.430175 25.686970 40.873005 64.529736
2025-03-02 2.161927 4.390741 8.183261 14.800820 25.658753 42.261834 68.879851
2025-03-09 1.868473 4.023314 7.857827 14.806107 26.585238 45.104296 75.531645
2025-03-16 1.632456 3.718390 7.591998 14.865239 27.576582 48.081052 82.537896
2025-03-23 1.421328 3.422724 7.298110 14.830183 28.384885 50.791545 89.256584
2025-03-30 1.180188 3.019082 6.743762 14.253759 28.192178 51.830326 93.318216
2025-04-06 1.029332 2.786847 6.498846 14.240391 29.018030 54.665637 100.584467
2025-04-13 0.897342 2.571753 6.258460 14.207011 29.801163 57.478221 107.987397
2025-04-20 0.851747 2.554522 6.429198 15.003558 32.187847 63.219201 120.688885
2025-04-27 0.795201 2.498826 6.507758 15.616018 34.265086 68.527949 132.916584
2025-05-04 0.749531 2.462466 6.623411 16.313789 36.554606 74.342126 146.319486
2025-05-11 0.662376 2.295223 6.414155 16.290267 37.406079 77.568007 155.272865
2025-05-18 0.559425 2.058981 6.005139 15.778064 37.217258 78.833661 160.734284
2025-05-25 0.465417 1.825023 5.563771 15.136432 36.694235 79.413912 164.940047
2025-06-01 0.413821 1.710869 5.409687 15.141849 37.530865 82.643748 174.214750
2025-06-08 0.370564 1.613442 5.285022 15.202155 38.485756 86.150315 184.170707
2025-06-15 0.328809 1.510298 5.128850 15.166410 39.221371 89.253753 193.492723